A clear evidence record for geopolitical context.

SwissForecast separates observe, verify, interpret, assess impact, review and update.

Observe

Potential events and sources are captured.

Verify

Published statements remain bound to source, time and status.

Interpret

Fact, interpretation and scenario are not interchangeable.

Assess impact

Impact is placed in relevant context only after source review.

Review and update

Records can be updated when new evidence or a correction is available.

Source hierarchy

Primary legal and institutional sources, official explanatory materials and specialist research are documented separately.

Published page text

Swissforecast - Material Price Forecasting Price & Economy Policy & Regulation Geopolitics Products & Pricing Calendar Insights About EN | DE Log In Contact Policy Tracker EU Pact on Migration and Asylum adopted, new rules for managing migration and asylum All policies Overview Intelligence Events World Relations Map Methodology Configure Monitoring Geopolitics / Methodology ← Back to Geopolitics SwissForecast · Methodology A clear evidence record for geopolitical context. The methodology separates source facts, analytical interpretation and scenario work so that each can be read on its own terms. Working process A clear evidence record for geopolitical context. 01 Observe Identify developments with a plausible connection to monitored markets, countries, materials or supply chains. A material development is logged as a candidate, never treated as a current assessment by default. 02 Verify Record the primary source, legal or institutional status, date and exact supporting passage before publication. Source version, original passage and review status remain attached to the record. 03 Interpret Explain the relevant industrial or market context separately from documented facts. Interpretation is attributable analytical work, not a substitute for a source fact. 04 Assess impact Connect an approved record to a Monitoring Profile only where relevance is explainable. Exposure, materials and markets make the matching reason visible. 05 Review and update Keep the original record, its source version and review history when evidence, status or context changes. Corrections update the record without erasing its audit trail. Sources A hierarchy that keeps evidence visible. 01 Primary legal and institutional sources Official legal acts, authorities, regulators, statistical bodies and intergovernmental institutions. 02 Official explanatory materials Government notices, implementation guidance and formally published policy documents. 03 Specialist research Used for context only and never presented as the legal or factual primary record. How to read a record Fact, interpretation and scenario are not interchangeable. Fact A statement tied to a source, original passage and source version. Interpretation A documented analytical reading of why the fact may matter for a market, material or exposure. Scenario A conditional pathway with stated assumptions; it is not a statement of fact or a forecast guarantee. Confidence and time Every published record needs a time anchor. Confidence describes the quality and completeness of available evidence for a record. A time stamp records when the source version was reviewed. Neither field converts an assessment into a permanent or universal risk score. Configure Monitoring Company About Contact Resources Insights & News Risk & Markets Calendar Methodology Prices Geopolitics Legal Imprint Privacy Terms © 2026 SwissForecast. All rights reserved. LinkedIn